Climate models are designed to simulate the responses and interaction of the oceans and atmosphere and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural an human induced.
The models predict that the Earth's average surface temperature will rise. Scientist predict the range of LIKELY temperature increase by running many possible future scenarios. However, these predictions are uncertainly because scientist don't know what choices people will make to control greenhouse gasses emission.
There is a variability between models because not only greenhouse gasses affect but also the effect of aerosols, climate feedbacks (snow and ice, water vapour, clouds and carbon cycle) and ocean cycles like El Niño and La Niña have several influence on temperature changes.
El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase (shrot-term cooling influence on global surface temperatures) and El Niño as the warm phase (we expect temperatures to be above the projection). These desviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate.
Further information about El Niño y La Niña cycle:
https://www.climate.gov/enso
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
http://www.environmentalscience.org/el-nino-la-nina-impact-environment
Finally, climate models are continously progressing and the simulation of important modes of climate variability has increased the overall confidence in the models’ representation of important climate processes.They can simulate the effect of El Niño and Niña effect, xtreme events, cyclones, cloud feedbacks, cryospheric feedbacks and others.
Links;
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jul/21/realistic-climate-models-accurately-predicted-global-warming
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jul/21/realistic-climate-models-accurately-predicted-global-warming
http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/?shared=true&user=&percent=17&s=22021222221222
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jul/21/realistic-climate-models-accurately-predicted-global-warming
http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/?shared=true&user=&percent=17&s=22021222221222
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