Showing posts with label water vapour. Show all posts
Showing posts with label water vapour. Show all posts

Monday, 22 February 2016

CLIMATE MODELS



Climate models are designed to simulate the responses and interaction of the oceans and atmosphere and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural an human induced.

The models predict that the Earth's average surface temperature will rise. Scientist predict the range of LIKELY temperature increase by running many possible future scenarios. However, these predictions are uncertainly because scientist don't know what choices people will make to control greenhouse gasses emission.



There is a variability between models because not only greenhouse gasses affect but also the effect of aerosols, climate feedbacks (snow and ice, water vapour, clouds and carbon cycle) and ocean cycles like El Niño and La Niña have several influence on temperature changes. 

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase (shrot-term cooling influence on global surface temperatures) and El Niño as the warm phase (we expect temperatures to be above the projection). These desviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate.




Further information about El Niño y La Niña cycle:
https://www.climate.gov/enso
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
http://www.environmentalscience.org/el-nino-la-nina-impact-environment



Finally, climate models are continously progressing and the simulation of important modes of climate variability has increased the overall confidence in the models’ representation of important climate processes.They can simulate the effect of El Niño and Niña effect, xtreme events, cyclones, cloud feedbacks, cryospheric feedbacks and others.


Links;


Thursday, 11 February 2016

SIGNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE - EXTREME EVENTS


How has our climate changed?

In 2013 in March, Spain received more than three times its monthly average precipitation, making it the wettest March since national records began in 1947. Normal precipitation across the country is just 46 millimeters, yet the country received 157 millimeters through the month. Rising rivers threatened many areas with floods.

Source:

The frequency of heavy precipitation has increased over most land areas in Spain, in my opinion this extreme event is related with reaching extrem temperatures that evaporate more water from the oceans.

In the south, Africa suffered droughs however, in the north the spring was unusually cold. Weather is behaving uncommonly everywhere. I would like to emphasise that this year in Ourense, the city where I live, the temperature in winter is higher than previous years and people is concerned about it.

Here other example in 2015,


Extrem weather events seems to be more frequent every year and they are a sign of climate change.

Thursday, 4 February 2016

RECENT PAST CLIMATE CHANGE


What are climate change records?

To understand the world's climate and how it was changed, there are many measurements that scientist have to evaluate.

An obstacle in evaluating past climate change is the fact that a lot of observations are not complete. Climate observations were mainly limited to weather situations and ships, and included measurements made near the land or ocean surface. 
In recent years things have improved, ballon soundings have been widespread over the land, satellites have covered all world and there has been an increase in sub-surface monitoring.

But there are no records of measurements bafore 1600s so scientifics have to use other types of information to investigate further back. These kind of data are called indirect or proxy measurements.
They use the tree-rings to determinate the chages in temperature and precipitation. A tree grows and it adds a new ring around its waistline each year so climate conditions have influence in the tree-ring widths.
The ice-cores have accumulated from snowfall over many millennia so, ice cores can tell to scientifics about temperature, precipitation, volcanic activity and wind patterns.
Coral reefs can be used to obtain measurements about temperature and sea-level changes. Corals build their hard skeletons form calcium carbonate. The calcium carbonate contains isotopes of oxygen that can be used to determine the temperature of the water in wich the coras grews.
Finally, scientist can use the polen grains to identify the type of plant from which they came and identify at what time the sediment, where the pollen laid, was deposited.



Sources:  http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/what-are-proxy-data


How volcanos have influence in climate change?

During this week we have seen that the gases and dust particles thrown into the atmosphere during volcanic eruptions have influences on climate.

Volcanic ash or dust released into the atmosphere during an eruption shade sunlight and cause temporary cooling. Larger particles let sunlight in but do not let heat radiation from the Earth’s surface out, and the result is a warmer Earth. Small ash particles form a dark cloud in the troposphere that block some of the incoming energy from the Sun and the Earth cools. Most of these particles fall out of the atmosphere within rain a few hours or days after an eruption. But the smallest particles of dust get into the stratosphere and are able to travel vast distances, often worldwide. These tiny particles are so light that they can stay in the stratosphere for months, blocking sunlight and causing cooling over large areas of the Earth.

Another component has influence in the climate change. Often, erupting volcanoes emit sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere. The sulfur dioxide moves into the stratosphere and combines with water to form sulfuric acid aerosols. The sulfuric acid makes a haze of tiny droplets in the stratosphere that reflects incoming solar radiation, causing cooling of the Earth’s surface. The aerosols can stay in the stratosphere for up to three years, moved around by winds and causing significant cooling worldwide. Eventually, the droplets grow large enough to fall to Earth.


Sources:
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/Aerosols/

The Earth’s climate changed due to natural causes in the past. Most often, global climate has changed because of variations in sunlight, the effect of volcanic eruptions, variations in the Earth's orbit and fluctuations in the energy that the sun emits. 
These natural causes have influence today but too small compared to human activity. For example, although volcanoes continue to emit carbon dioxide, the amount of carbon dioxide is extremely small compared to human emission because the world population is a little over a trillion today which implies that carbon dioxide emissions have considerably increased.

Sources: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/GlobalWarming/page3.php


What is the role of isotopes in determining temperatures from the past?

The carbonate is the key to know about past temperatures. Originally, carbote is dissolved in the oceans and it forms the shell of a little sea animal, the foraminifera. Studying the shell of this animal through the carbonate that forms it, scientifics can discover how temperatures have changed.
Carbonate contains oxygen, whose atoms exist in two naturally-occurring stable isotopes, 18O and 16O.The ratio of these two isotopes in the shells tells us about past temperatures.
The variability of 18O in the ocean determinates the temperature. This way, when water evaporates in warm climates, the molecules o16O tends to evaporate first, so it has more 18O in places where lots of water evaporates and less where it rains a lot.
18O isotope is the first to back down into the oceans in form of precipitation, therefore shells have high levels of this isotope.
Changes in climate that alter the global patterns of evaporation or precipitation can therefore cause changes to the background δ18O ratio.  


Sources: http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/briefs/schmidt_01/


How have trees been used to reconstruct different climate variables across the world?


Dendrochronology or tree-ring dating is the method of scientific dating based on the analysis of tree ring growth patterns. Tree rings vary in width denpendent on fast or slow growth patterns during warm or cold periods. the density of cells reflects on the growth patterns (low density results in thin rings, high density produces thick rings). Tree could also have diseases or additional enrichment, which result in the varying growth patterns also.

Tree-rings can provide continuous yearly paleoclimatic records for regions or periods of time with no instrumental climate data. However, different species respond to different climate parameters. Scientifics have to consider when dating trees that most trees are not old enough, so the records do not date back as far as other sources of climate data. This is when crossdating is important to identify similar growth patterns across many trees and make a longer timeline of climate data.This way, increasing the amount of trees utilised to study, the best crossdating results can be obtained.


Sources:
http://web.utk.edu/~grissino/principles.htm#1
http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/climate/CDcourses_treerings.html
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/news/picture-climate-how-can-we-learn-tree-rings


How can ice cores provide a record of atmospheric composition?


The most important property of ice cores is that they are a direct archive of past atmospheric gasses. Air is trapped at the base of the firn layer, and when the compacted snow turns to ice, the air is trapped in bubbles.The air bubbles are extracted by melting, crushing or grating the ice in a vacuum.This method provides detailed records of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide going back over 650,000 years

Also, it is possible to discern past air temperatures from ice cores. This can be related directly to concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gasses preserved in the ice. The ratio of oxygen isotopes in the snow reveals temperature, though in this case, the ratio tells how cold the air was at the time the snow fell. In snow, colder temperatures result in higher concentrations of light oxygen.


Thursday, 28 January 2016

THE CLIMATE SYSTEM, FEEDBACKS, CYCLES AND SELF-REGULATION

Our climate is a system that it is controlled by positive and negative feedbacks as well as natural cycles.

As a system, we can distinguish 5 key components ( the atmosphere, hydrosphere, biosphere, cryosphere and lithosphere ). These components intetract between them through a series of cycles that link every component to another.

 
There are a lot of natural cycles, but a good example is the water cycle.In the picture below you can observe how it works.



To determine the climate state of the Earth is needed to undesrtand the feedbacks that operate in the climate system. There are 3 key feedbacks, water vapour feedback, ice albedo feedback and the radiation feedback.

The water vapor feedback is a positive feedback (in a mathematical way) and has three components: temperature, evaporation and water vapour. If we incresase the temperature, the evaporation increases.


The ice albedo feedback has a significant influence on the climate. The ice reflects so much solar radiation back to the atmosphere because it has a high albedo. On the other hand, the ocean tends to absorb more that it reflects because it has a low albedo, for this reason the ocean is heating. This means that the warming of the ocean will melt the sea ice.



The last feedback is the radiation feedback, it is a good example of negative feedback. It works by cooling an object when the temperature is rising. All objects give off radiation, but the warmer a body is the more radiation it gives off.

To sump up, climate can be conceived as a system that involves different components. The mixture of positive and negative feedbacks cooperates to a self-regulation of the climate system.

Wednesday, 27 January 2016

BLANKET EARTH


I enjoyed this article from NASA, it explains breafly what are the causes of the current global warming.

NASA’s article A blanket around the Earth


Greenhouse gases act as a thermal blanket for the Earth. Most of them are surrounding us, for example methane is a gas produced by human activities like agriculture, carbon dioxide is associated to industrial activities and burning fossil fuels, nitrous oxide is a gas produced by soil cultivations practices, CFC's are used in industrial applications but the most abundant greenhouse gas is water vapour that has a great impact in the Earth's atmosphere warm but it also acts like a feedback mechanism to the climate which will be explained later.



 


The globalisation is a fact and not only do greenhouse gases cause a harmful effect  but also the human activities contribute to warm the planet. The industrial activities have raised atmospheric dioxide level during the last 250 years.


Finally, It's reasonable to assume that the sun's energy can cause the climate change but several evidences show that since 1750 the amount of energy coming from the sun remained constant and if the activity of the sun causes the warming, then we would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere and that is not happening.