REFLECTION WEEK 5

This week the most important thig I have learnt is how the ice flow to the ocean and as our planet warms, sea levels are set to rise.
 
Most of us do not live in polar regions. We do not come in contact with icebergs or ice sheets very often. Most of us have only seen these things in photographs. However, no matter where you live, the snow and ice of the Earth’s cryosphere has an impact on your climate.

So, this week makes me wonder how big could be the impact of the sea level in the coastal communities in Galicia ( the region of Spain where I live).

I have found a study realized by environmental education program Voz Natura 2007, using as source information obtained from the Institute of Geology of Coruña and the report Glaciers Dominate eustatic sea-level rise in the 21st Century, published by the journal Science.

In this study you can see the effect of sea level rise on the Galician coast, since 2007 to beyond 22,000. However, the first consequences are observed before 3000, with the disappearance of some populations.

before

 

after

Subida del nivel del mar en Galicia.

In this link you can choose your city and compare.
http://choices.climatecentral.org/#10/42.2155/-8.8121?compare=temperatures&carbon-end-yr=2100&scenario-a=warming-4&scenario-b=warming-2 


And what about sea acidification? 

If the carbon dioxide levels increase, the pH of the ocean will descend. So the ocean becomes more acidic. This fact can seriously affect to calcifying species because their shells can dissolve.

Again I tried to search some information about how the acidification of the ocean have influence in Galicia.

We agree that swim in acid is not a good idea, and less live in that environment so, the first consequences begin to emerge. Red tides increase in duration and intensity, mussel farming sufers a drop of 20% growth. Sardine fisheries have suffered reductions and the sardines are already migratin north and the same process explain the reduction in catches of octopus. Also, shellfishing is possibly the most sensitive to climate change.
The sea acidification can have a terrible effect on fishing and shellfish farming in Galicia.


In conclusion, all this data concerning Galicia could be applied in other parts of the world because climate change is a global issue with impacts all over the world and the sea level rise and acidification affects in one way or another.
 

IMPACTS ON LAND AND OCEAN SYSTEMS

THE CRYOSPHERE.
 

The cryosphere is those portions of Earth's surface where water is in solid form, including sea ice, lake ice, river ice, snow cover, glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets, and frozen ground. The cryosphere is an integral part of the global climate system with important links and feedbacks generated through its influence on surface energy and moisture fluxes, clouds, precipitation, hydrology, atmospheric and oceanic circulation.

Snow and ice help keep the earth cool by reflecting between 60% and 90% of the solar energy that shines on them back into space. Reduction of snow cover and sea ice may lead to increased warming, as more solar energy is absorbed. 

The two more important areas ase the Antarctica and Greenland which are the 99% of glacier ice on Earth. The major body of land ice in the Arctic – the Greenland ice sheet – has been found to be thickening inland. Nearer the coast, however, the ice sheet is thinning and shrinking, at an accelerating rate.  Overall, the Greenland ice sheet has been found to be losing ice mass over the last twenty years, and this ice loss is becoming faster. Antarctic ice consists of a land mass topped by an ice sheet and surrounded by sea ice.  Antarctic sea ice extentis increasing at around 1% per decade, thought to be caused by shifting weather patterns reacting to changes in ozone, high in the atmosphere.

As Earth warms the sea level rise, it means that about 65 meters of sea level is potential to rise if mountain glaciers and ice caps melt. Furthermore, the impact of melting sea ice amplifies the warming in the artic and the hounting grounds of polar bear will be reduced.

 
Changes in the glaciers in the Greater Himalaya .

The glaciers of the Himalaya are the Third Pole. They feed the giant rivers of Asia, and support half of humanity.

According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), “glaciers in the Himayalas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and if the present rate continues, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 and perhaps sooner is very high if the earth keep getting warmer at the current rate”.  

 

Really impressive images: http://explore.glacierworks.org/en

Links:
http://na.unep.net/geas/getuneppagewitharticleidscript.php?article_id=91
http://www.navdanya.org/climate-change/in-the-himalayas
http://wwf.panda.org/what_we_do/where_we_work/eastern_himalaya/threats/climate/

THE OCEAN

Sice industrial revolution carabon dioxide leves have been increasing. Ocean plays a really important play in the carbon cycle, it absorbs almost a third of the atmospheric carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide reacts with water to form carbonic acid that dissociates into bicarbonate and hydrogen ions. The concentration of the hydrogen ions determines the pH of the sea. So, if more carbon dioxide is absorbed by ocean the pH of the ocean will descend more in the next years. 

Many marine organisms that produce calcium carbonate shells or skeletons are negatively impacted by increasing CO₂ levels and decreasing pH in seawater. A more acidic environment has a dramatic effect on some calcifying species, including oysters, clams, sea urchins, shallow water corals, deep sea corals, and calcareous plankton. It means that the ability of reef-building corals to produce their skeletons can be reduced or even that the shells can be dissolved. When shelled organisms are at risk, the entire food web may also be at risk.

REFLECTION WEEK 4

This week  we were focusing on the climate modelling and the geoengineering.

Different climates models focuse on the same thing, the Earth's average temperature will rise and obviously because of the emission of greenhouse gasses. I strongly recomend to play a little with this model My 2050, it can give you an idea about what measures can be taken.

Geoengineering seemed to me madnes. It is about how can we change the climate through removing carbon dioxide and managing the solar radiation.

Why are they not informing the population about the weather manipulation? Why not talk about these issues in the media? Why not mention any political party nor included in its election manifesto?

There are those who think that geoengineering is like weather weapons to subdue whole peoples or nations and others think that it is a great idea.

There are a lot of questions that need to be answered.

I am afraid of the consecuences of any climate manipulation. In my opinion geoengineering could add chaos to complex and not fully understood weather system.

I don't know if I am a bit alarmist but I am sure that I need to read more about this issue.

GEOENGINEERING

Geoengineering is the artificial modification of Earths climate systems through two primary ideologies, Solar Radiation Management and Carbon Dioxide Removal.

Solar Radiation Management aim to reflect a small proportion of the Sun’s energy back into space, counteracting the temperature rise caused by increased levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which absorb energy and raise temperatures. Some proposed techniques include:

• Albedo enhancement. Increasing the reflectiveness of clouds or the land surface so that more of the Sun’s heat is reflected back into space.
• Space reflectors. Blocking a small proportion of sunlight before it reaches the Earth.
• Stratospheric aerosols. Introducing small, reflective particles into the upper atmosphere to reflect some sunlight before it reaches the surface of the Earth.

Carbon Dioxide Removal aim to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, directly countering the increased greenhouse effect and ocean acidification. These techniques would have to be implemented on a global scale to have a significant impact on carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere. Some proposed techniques include:

• Afforestation. Engaging in a global-scale tree planting effort.
• Biochar. 'Charring' biomass and burying it so that its carbon is locked up in the soil.
• Bio-energy with carbon capture and sequestration. Growing biomass, burning it to create energy and capturing and sequestering the carbon dioxide created in the process.
• Ambient Air Capture. Building large machines that can remove carbon dioxide directly from ambient air and store it elsewhere.
• Ocean Fertilisation. Adding nutrients to the ocean in selected locations to increase primary production which draws down carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
• Enhanced Weathering. Exposing large quantities of minerals that will react with carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and storing the resulting compound in the ocean or soil.
• Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement. Grinding up, dispersing, and dissolving rocks such as limestone, silicates, or calcium hydroxide in the ocean to increase its ability to store carbon and directly ameliorate ocean acidification.

Source:
http://www.geoengineering.ox.ac.uk/what-is-geoengineering/what-is-geoengineering/

CLIMATE MODELS

Climate models are designed to simulate the responses and interaction of the oceans and atmosphere and to account for changes to the land surface, both natural an human induced.

The models predict that the Earth's average surface temperature will rise. Scientist predict the range of LIKELY temperature increase by running many possible future scenarios. However, these predictions are uncertainly because scientist don't know what choices people will make to control greenhouse gasses emission.

There is a variability between models because not only greenhouse gasses affect but also the effect of aerosols, climate feedbacks (snow and ice, water vapour, clouds and carbon cycle) and ocean cycles like El Niño and La Niña have several influence on temperature changes. 

El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of what is known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.La Niña is sometimes referred to as the cold phase (shrot-term cooling influence on global surface temperatures) and El Niño as the warm phase (we expect temperatures to be above the projection). These desviations from normal surface temperatures can have large-scale impacts not only on ocean processes, but also on global weather and climate.

Further information about El Niño y La Niña cycle:
https://www.climate.gov/enso
http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/ninonina.html
http://www.environmentalscience.org/el-nino-la-nina-impact-environment

Finally, climate models are continously progressing and the simulation of important modes of climate variability has increased the overall confidence in the models’ representation of important climate processes.They can simulate the effect of El Niño and Niña effect, xtreme events, cyclones, cloud feedbacks, cryospheric feedbacks and others.

Further information: 

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter8.pdf

Links;

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jul/21/realistic-climate-models-accurately-predicted-global-warming
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2014/jul/21/realistic-climate-models-accurately-predicted-global-warming
http://my2050.decc.gov.uk/?shared=true&user=&percent=17&s=22021222221222

REFLECTION WEEK 3

Another incredibly week!

This week was really surprising. Not only did I learn new things about how our climate is changing in the poles and how important is the impact of human activities in the emission of  CO2, but also I realized what is happening in other parts of the world thanks to the other students who took part in this course.

It is easy to understand that something important is happening in our climate just looking at the Arctic. The Arctic is the region that has changed more because of the combination of greenhouse gasses and ice albedo feedback. Normally, most people knows that the Arctic is melting due to the effect of greenhouse gasses but citizens do not realize that the Antarctic is also suffering the effects of climate change. So, it was an enormous effort to search more information abour Antarctic.

What really impressed me was the predictions about how spain will rise its temperature almost 4ºC in the future and the carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere, they have risen to 402ppm. I felt some relief when I saw in the World Bank web site that in my country the amount of emissions had descended since 2007. But, I feel that we can actually do more, we need to change before it is too late.

Climate change is a terrible problem, and it absolutely needs to be solved. It deserves to be a huge priority.

The global warning isn't a prediction. It is happening.

 

 


 

CARBON CYCLE

The carbon cycle is the circulation and transformation of carbon back and forth between living things and the environment. Carbon compounds are present in living things like plants and animals and in nonliving things like rocks and soil.

The amount of carbon on the earth and in Earth's atmosphere is fixed, but that fixed amount of carbon is dynamic, always changing into different carbon compounds and moving between living and nonliving things.

Carbon is released to the atmosphere from what are called "carbon sources" and stored in plants, animals, rocks, and water in what are called "carbon sinks."

There are many carbon sources like these;
Plants.
Through photosynthesis plants take carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere and release oxygen.The carbon dioxide is converted into carbon compounds that make up the body of the plant, which are stored in both the parts of the plants like shoots, leaves and roots.

Animals.
Animals eat the plants, breath in the oxygen, and exhale carbon dioxide. The carbon dioxide created by animals is then available for plants to use in photosynthesis. Carbon stored in plants that are not eaten by animals eventually decomposes after the plants die, and is either released into the atmosphere or stored in the soil.

Geologic processes.
Large quantities of carbon can be released to the atmosphere through geologic processes like volcanic eruptions and other natural changes that destabilize carbon sinks. For example, increasing temperatures can cause carbon dioxide to be released from the ocean.

While a portion of the total amount of carbon present on the earth runs through the carbon cycle relatively quickly, another portion of the carbon is caught up in long-lived and stable carbon sinks.

In Earth’s past, the carbon cycle has changed in response to climate change. Variations in Earth’s orbit alter the amount of energy Earth receives from the Sun and leads to a cycle of ice ages and warm periods like Earth’s current climate. Today, changes in the carbon cycle are happening because of people. We perturb the carbon cycle by burning fossil fuels and clearing land. By burning coal, oil, and natural gas, we accelerate the process, releasing vast amounts of carbon (carbon that took millions of years to accumulate) into the atmosphere every year.

Today we can obtain the data of amount of emissions from the World Bank web site. (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/EN.ATM.CO2E.PC/countries/CN-GB-US-ES?display=graph)

CO2 emissions (kt)

 

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)

These graphics show that China is the the largest producer of CO2 and USA is the greatest producer per capita. However, we can observe that the amount of emissions per capita in some counties have steadily declined since 2007, excepting China.

Since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution, when people first started burning fossil fuels, carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere have risen from about 280 parts per million to 387 parts per million.
 
Nowadays human activity has contributed to an atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide not seen since the Pliocene epoch between 2.6 and 5.3 million years ago.

Sources:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/#mlo_full
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/CarbonCycle/

ANTARCTIC AND ARCTIC

We often think that Arctic and Antarctic are the same because they are cold, dark and remote but, they are completely different. The most notable difference is that one is in the North and the other in the South. Also, polar bears live only in the Arctic and penguins live only in the Antarctic.

The Arctic.

The Arctic is a polar region located at the northernmost part of the Earth. It consists of a vast ocean with a seasonally varying ice cover and completely surrounded by land.

The Arctic is especially vulnerable to the effects of any climate change. This is because ice and snow reflect a high proportion of the sun's energy into space (albedo effect). As snow and ice melt, the ability of the Arctic to reflect heat back to space is reduced, open water are exposed which can absorb more heat from the sun. That extra heat then helps melt even more ice. So, the ice in the Artic has suffered a great reduction in recent years. Positive feedbacks are occurring in the Arctic.

Source: https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/arctic-meteorology/climate_change.html

Changes in the Arctic climate are important because the Arctic acts as a refrigerator for the rest of the world and also the melting glaciers could contribute to rise the sea level. 

The Antarctic.

The Antarcticis a polar region around the Earth's South Pole, opposite the Arctic region. It is almost a geographic opposite of the Arctic, because Antarctica is a land mass surrounded by an ocean.
 

Antarctic sea ice forms ridges much less often than sea ice in the Arctic. Also, because there is no land boundary to the north, the sea ice is free to float northward into warmer waters where it eventually melts. As a result, almost all of the sea ice that forms during the Antarctic winter melts during the summer.
 

Antarctica comprises two geologically distinct regions, East Antarctica and West Antarctica, separated by the great Trans-Antarctic Mountains but joined together by an ice sheet. The annual sea ice cover around the continent, which seasonally reaches an area greater than that of the continent itself, modulates exchanges of heat, moisture, and gases between the atmosphere and ocean and, through salt rejection when it freezes, forces the formation of cold oceanic bottom waters that spread out under the world’s oceans. Alterations to this system will affect climate all over the planet.
The Antarctic Peninsula is particularly sensitive to small rises in the annual average temperature, this has increased by nearly 3°C in the region in the last 50 years, this is about 10 times faster than the average in the rest of the world.
 

Despite warmer sea-surface and air temperatures over the Southern Ocean, there has been a slight increase in Antarctic sea-ice extent which is believed to be linked to changes in atmospheric weather patterns. The collapse of ice shelves and land-ice reduction near coastal West Antarctica has been driven by warm ocean currents under the ice shelves.
 

The eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula is very sensitive to climate change. Stronger westerly winds in the northern Antarctic Peninsula, driven principally by human-induced climate change, were responsible for the marked regional summer warming that led to the well-publicised retreat and collapse of the northern Larsen Ice Shelf.

The reasons for these changes is complex, different areas react in different ways to changing climate but obviously the human activity has contibuted to the global warming. It may seem intuitive that warmer temperatures mean less ice in Antarctica and not more, it is explicable, in part by the effect of the ozone hole that forms annually over Antarctica.The Ozone Hole and global warming have changed Antarctic weather patterns.

Sources:

Antarctica comprises two geologically distinct regions, East Antarctica and West Antarctica, separated by the great Trans-Antarctic Mountains but joined together by the all-encompassing ice sheet. - See more at: http://www.asoc.org/advocacy/climate-change-and-the-antarctic#sthash.tsKoDm0O.dpuf

e problem. Antarctica comprises two geologically distinct regions, East Antarctica and West Antarctica, separated by the great Trans-Antarctic Mountains but joined together by the all-encompassing ice sheet. The presence of the high ice sheet and the polar location make Antarctica a powerful heat sink that strongly affects the climate of the whole Earth. - See more at: http://www.asoc.org/advocacy/climate-change-and-the-antarctic#sthash.tsKoDm0O.dpuf

https://www.bas.ac.uk/data/our-data/publication/antarctica-and-climate-change/

e problem. Antarctica comprises two geologically distinct regions, East Antarctica and West Antarctica, separated by the great Trans-Antarctic Mountains but joined together by the all-encompassing ice sheet. The presence of the high ice sheet and the polar location make Antarctica a powerful heat sink that strongly affects the climate of the whole Earth. - See more at: http://www.asoc.org/advocacy/climate-change-and-the-antarctic#sthash.tsKoDm0O.dpuf

https://nsidc.org/cryosphere/seaice/characteristics/difference.html

Antarctica comprises two geologically distinct regions, East Antarctica and West Antarctica, separated by the great Trans-Antarctic Mountains but joined together by the all-encompassing ice sheet. - See more at: http://www.asoc.org/advocacy/climate-change-and-the-antarctic#sthash.tsKoDm0O.dpuf

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE CHANGES - MY WARMING WORLD

The 10 warmest years in the 134-year record all have occurred since 2000, with the exception of 1998. The year 2015 ranks as the warmest on record. The global temperature has increased 0'87ºC.

Source: http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/

And, what has been happening where I live?

To understand what is happening we can use the CMIP5 Global Climate Change Viewer. It is an interactive map to look at the global annual mean temperature changes. The black line shows observations from 1980-2004, the blue line is the model control simulation and should closely follow the black line and the red line is the future projection for 2050-2074 for the country you have selected.

According with the graphics, Spain observations and 1980-2004 simulations are very closed together for temperature, with the future projections showing a general increase over all 12 months. In Spain we can expect that the temperature will rise up to 4 ºC (2050-2074).

Furthermore, in the picture we can clearly observe that the northern part will have an increased temperature rise than the southern part.

Although predictions and simulations are quite similar, the precipitation observations and 1980-2004 simulations are quiet differentt. Observations from january to april are lower than predictions and simulations and from september to november are higher. It should be stressed that precipitations tend to decrease.

According to the information above we have to considere largest threats in Spain. 

In Spain the increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall will create ideal conditions for increasing forest fires. Also the sea level is expected to rise and the land of the coasts will suffer the risk of flooding.
The increase in temperature will allow the proliferation of exotic species like zebra mussel and some native species, like oso pardo, will face with the complete disappearance of the favourable weather conditions for their survival.
The climate change also could have influence in the economy. Wine’s production will be affected by the higher risk of frost, under periods of ripening of the grapes, water shortages and changing patterns of pests and diseases. The fisheries sector is worrying about jellyfish, whose presence seriously damage fishing. Furthermore, the Mediterranean area will have a higher incidence of heat waves and droughts affecting the tourism. And finally, cereal crops will be devastated by drought. As the weather becomes less predictable, agriculture in Spain will become more difficult.

SIGNS OF CLIMATE CHANGE - EXTREME EVENTS

How has our climate changed?

In 2013 in March, Spain received more than three times its monthly average precipitation, making it the wettest March since national records began in 1947. Normal precipitation across the country is just 46 millimeters, yet the country received 157 millimeters through the month. Rising rivers threatened many areas with floods.

Source:

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/featured-images/state-climate-extreme-events

The frequency of heavy precipitation has increased over most land areas in Spain, in my opinion this extreme event is related with reaching extrem temperatures that evaporate more water from the oceans.

In the south, Africa suffered droughs however, in the north the spring was unusually cold. Weather is behaving uncommonly everywhere. I would like to emphasise that this year in Ourense, the city where I live, the temperature in winter is higher than previous years and people is concerned about it.

Here other example in 2015,

Extrem weather events seems to be more frequent every year and they are a sign of climate change.